AGI declared before 2030
A major lab publicly claims artificial general intelligence.
2 platforms $980K volume Closes in 1283 days
Prices last updated
Using reference prices • Live data unavailable
Consensus probability
Yes 31.0%
No 70.0%
Mean of tradeable platform prices. Cheapest price to back each side is highlighted in the table.
Apr 11, 2026 Jun 13, 2026
Price comparison
| Platform | Yes | No | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 31¢ | 70¢ | — |
| Manifold Markets signal | 37¢ | 63¢ | — |
● highlights the cheapest price to back each side. Prices in cents = implied probability. Demo data.
Read our platform reviews: Polymarket · Manifold Markets
Market FAQ
- Where can I get the best price on "Yes"?
- The cheapest tradeable price on Yes is 31¢ at Polymarket. A lower price means a bigger payout if it resolves Yes.
- What does the contract price mean?
- A prediction-market contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens, so its price (e.g. 60¢) is the market-implied probability — here, a 60% chance.
- Why do platforms show different prices?
- Each venue has its own order book, fees, and trader base, so prices drift apart. That spread is the opportunity OddsGrab surfaces — back the side wherever it is cheapest.