Prediction markets
Economics prediction markets
Rates, inflation, recession, and markets.
Economics markets price the macro calendar — Fed decisions, inflation prints, GDP, unemployment, and recession calls. They turn the kind of questions that move bond desks into contracts anyone can read at a glance.
These markets often move alongside official data releases, so the contract price is a fast read on what traders actually expect from the next FOMC meeting or jobs report.
Prices last updated
Economics markets
Economics 3 platforms
Fed cuts rates at July 2026 meeting
Yes 70.5%
$3.5M vol Closes in 33 days
Economics 2 platforms
Fed funds rate below 4% by end of 2026
Yes 53.5%
$2.4M vol Closes in 187 days
Economics 2 platforms
US recession declared in 2026
Yes 25.5%
$2.4M vol Closes in 187 days
Economics 2 platforms
US unemployment above 4.5% in December 2026
Yes 39.5%
$1.3M vol Closes in 196 days
Which platforms cover economics best
Kalshi is the standout here: as a CFTC-regulated exchange it lists a broad menu of US economic indicators with clean, dollar-funded contracts. Polymarket covers the headline macro questions — rate cuts, recession — with strong liquidity.
Economics markets FAQ
- What are economics prediction markets?
- Economics prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes — rates, inflation, recession, and markets. The contract price reflects the crowd's implied probability of each outcome.
- Where can I trade economics markets?
- Polymarket and Kalshi carry the deepest liquidity for most questions, with Manifold offering a play-money signal. OddsGrab lines up each platform price for the same event so you can take the cheapest side.
- How is the "best" price decided?
- For a buyer, the best price is the lowest one — it costs less to back the same outcome, so the payout is larger. We highlight the cheapest tradeable price per selection across platforms.