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Politics

Presidential approval above 45% on July 1, 2026

Based on the FiveThirtyEight approval average at close.

2 platforms $770K volume Closes in 4 days

Prices last updated

Using reference prices • Live data unavailable

Consensus probability

Yes 40.0%
No 61.0%

Mean of tradeable platform prices. Cheapest price to back each side is highlighted in the table.

Yes price history 40.0% -6.0 pts
Apr 11, 2026 Jun 13, 2026

Price comparison

Platform Yes No Trade
Polymarket 39¢ 62¢
Kalshi 41¢ 60¢

highlights the cheapest price to back each side. Prices in cents = implied probability. Demo data.

Read our platform reviews: Polymarket · Kalshi

Market FAQ

Where can I get the best price on "Yes"?
The cheapest tradeable price on Yes is 39¢ at Polymarket. A lower price means a bigger payout if it resolves Yes.
What does the contract price mean?
A prediction-market contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens, so its price (e.g. 60¢) is the market-implied probability — here, a 60% chance.
Why do platforms show different prices?
Each venue has its own order book, fees, and trader base, so prices drift apart. That spread is the opportunity OddsGrab surfaces — back the side wherever it is cheapest.