Super Bowl LXI winner
Sportsbook futures (de-vigged) vs. prediction-market prices for the 2026 NFL champion.
Prices last updated
Edge alert: Field prices diverge by 9.9 points
Cheapest to back at Kalshi ( 41.0%) vs FanDuel ( 50.9%). Fees, liquidity, and access differ — verify before acting.
Implied probability comparison
Sportsbook futures shown as de-vigged (fair) probabilities.
| Outcome | Sportsbooks | Prediction markets | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | FanDuel | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
| Chiefs | 15.6% +600 | 16.1% +580 | 19.0% 19¢ | 21.0% 21¢ |
| Eagles | 12.8% +750 | 12.2% +800 | 16.0% 16¢ | 15.0% 15¢ |
| 49ers | 11.5% +850 | 10.9% +900 | 13.0% 13¢ | 14.0% 14¢ |
| Bills | 10.4% +950 | 9.9% +1000 | 12.0% 12¢ | 11.0% 11¢ |
| Field | 49.6% +120 | 50.9% +115 | 42.0% 42¢ | 41.0% 41¢ |
● cheapest to back · ● richest price. Demo data — verify live before acting.
Flagged outcomes
How to read this
Sportsbook futures carry a built-in margin (vig), so their raw implied probabilities sum to well over 100%. We remove the vig per book before comparing, so the numbers above are fair probabilities you can line up directly against prediction-market prices. A wide gap can signal an edge — but fees, liquidity, and access differ across venues, so treat it as a lead to investigate, not a sure thing.