Chiefs vs Bills — moneyline
Week 1 game winner: sportsbook moneylines (de-vigged) vs. prediction-market game prices.
Prices last updated
Edge alert: Chiefs prices diverge by 5.9 points
Cheapest to back at FanDuel ( 40.1%) vs Polymarket ( 46.0%). Fees, liquidity, and access differ — verify before acting.
Implied probability comparison
Sportsbook futures shown as de-vigged (fair) probabilities.
| Outcome | Sportsbooks | Prediction markets | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Polymarket | Kalshi | |
| Chiefs | 40.9% +135 | 40.1% +140 | 41.7% +130 | 46.0% 46¢ | 41.0% 41¢ |
| Bills | 59.1% -160 | 59.9% -165 | 58.3% -155 | 55.0% 55¢ | 60.0% 60¢ |
● cheapest to back · ● richest price. Demo data — verify live before acting.
Flagged outcomes
How to read this
Sportsbook futures carry a built-in margin (vig), so their raw implied probabilities sum to well over 100%. We remove the vig per book before comparing, so the numbers above are fair probabilities you can line up directly against prediction-market prices. A wide gap can signal an edge — but fees, liquidity, and access differ across venues, so treat it as a lead to investigate, not a sure thing.